Whose asset is Himalayan Water resources??

Pakistan and India may have entered the fifth round of composite talks to resolve old disputes in a bid to improve ties, but the two sides still remain bitterly engaged in conflicts over resources - water, for the time being, topping the agenda.

For the two nuclear-armed neighbors who have fought three wars since independence in 1947, rivers flowing to Pakistan from the Indian-administered part of the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir have emerged as a recent bilateral flashpoint.

At a time of global financial crisis and food scarcity, and when its own rivers are drying up, India has announced ambitious plans to build water reservoirs on Kashmiri rivers allotted to Pakistan by a 1960 World Bank-mediated agreement known as the Indus Water Treaty. In accordance with the Treaty - sponsored by the UK, Germany, Australia, New Zealand and Canada - India and Pakistan were given control of three rivers each, originating from Jammu and Kashmir.

The Treaty made a simple and straightforward attempt to let both adversaries share the available water resources by allotting the eastern rivers (Ravi, Sutlej and Beas) to India and the western rivers (Jhelum, Chenab and Sindh) to Pakistan.

However, nothing between India and Pakistan is straightforward or simple.

India's construction of a 450-megawatt Baglihar hydel project on the Chenab River, which flows from Jammu and Kashmir into Pakistan, has ignited a fresh war of words. Flanked by tight security, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Jammu and Kashmir on 7 October to launch the start of the controversial project.

The 470-feet high, 317-meter wide dam, with a storage capacity of 15 billion cusecs of water, has significantly reduced water flow to agriculture-dependent Pakistan, according to Pakistani officials.

At present, Pakistan is weighing its options of filing simultaneous complaints with the World Bank and the International Court of Arbitration against India for violating the Treaty, citing unauthorized use of the Chenab River. Speaking to reporters after unsuccessful negotiations over the issue, Pakistani Water Commissioner Jamat Ali Shah said, "India is neither willing to compensate Pakistan's massive water losses nor consider bringing any change to the physical structure of the dam."

According to India's NDTV.com, when Pakistan took its complaint about the Baglihar hydel project to the World Bank in 2005, an expert from the organization appointed to the case gave India the green light, with some minor modifications to the project. The Baglihar hydel is expected to boost the power sector of Jammu and Kashmir, which suffers from severe electricity shortages.

"Being a lower riparian, Pakistan is hit hard by the water shortage with enormous loss in energy sector and agriculture-related businesses, in addition to imminent food inflation," Irfan Shahzad, a development expert and columnist for Pakistan's daily Dawn newspaper, told ISN Security Watch.

During the launch of the project in Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian prime minister said Pakistan's concerns had been addressed adequately, despite claims to the contrary by new Pakistani President Asif Zardari, who brought up the case before the UN General Assembly in New York recently.

"Pakistan would be paying a very high price for India's move to block Pakistan's water supply from the Chenab River," Zardari said, warning India "not to trade important regional objectives for short-term domestic goals."

To fill the newly constructed dam, Pakistani officials say India has consistently obstructed the Chenab's flow into their country. The Indus River System Authority, Pakistan's water distribution body, claims to have received only 19,351 cusecs on 9 October and 10,739 cusecs on 11 October from the Chenab River when it should be receiving a minimum of 55,000 cusecs.

Pakistan's top negotiator on water issues, Jamaat Ali Shah, told ISN Security Watch that Islamabad was seeking compensation for the loss of over 0.2 MAF (million acre feet) of water last month from the Ravi, Sutlej and Chenab rivers.

Shah's Indian counterpart, G Aranganathan, rejects Pakistan's assertion, instead blaming what he called "faulty" water gauges.

Punjab's irrigation secretary, Babar Hassan Bharwana, told ISN Security Watch from Lahore that there is expected to be a total loss of 321,000 MAF of water, bringing some 405 canals and 1,125 distributaries to dead levels and affecting 13 million acres of agricultural land on which rice, wheat, sugarcane and fodder crops are grown.

Pakistan is also receiving a major hit on the energy front as hydropower meets most of its household and industrial energy needs, officials say. Since early October, the biggest power generation center on the Tarbela Dam has been working at one-tenth of its capacity, allegedly owing to the reduced water flow from the Chenab River.

"We are forced to the disrupt electricity supply for 10 to 12 hours daily to manage the growing power shortage in the country," Water and Power Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf told ISN Security Watch.

The decision to allow India to proceed with the project "will most likely influence any future interpretation of the Indus Water Treaty," Pakistan's Dawn newspaper quoted Salman MA Salman, a lead counsel of the World Bank, as saying.

Water warfare

Like most of the disputes between India and Pakistan, the row over water resources is rooted in history.

On 1 April 1948, less than a year after the partition of the subcontinent and the creation of the separate states of India and Pakistan, Delhi stopped the flow of water from the canals on its side, denying water to some 5.5 percent of the sown area and almost 8 percent of the cultivated area. On 4 May 1948, India agreed to the Inter-Dominion Agreement with Pakistan, which allowed for the continuation of water supplies for irrigation purposes until the Pakistani side managed to develop alternative water resources.

Some time after this, then-Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru invited American expert David Lilenthal to survey the situation, but his observations, which bolstered Pakistan's arguments, failed to earn recognition from Delhi. Later, the World Bank sponsored several rounds of talks in Washington from 1952 to 1960, eventually resulting in the signing of the Indus Water Treaty.

The alarm bells again rang in 1984 when India announced plans to build the barrage on the Jhelum River at the mouth of Wullar Lake, the largest fresh water lake, near the town of Sopore in the disputed Kashmir Valley. India calls it the Tulbul Navigation Project, while Pakistan refers to it as the Wullar Barrage. Owing to Pakistani protests, India has stopped construction work on the project.

Then, in 1992, Pakistan first learned of plans for another controversial water reservoir, the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River, which was also allotted to Pakistani by the 1960 treaty.

While the accord gave India full rights to use water from the eastern rivers by building dams and barrages, it allowed limited irrigation use of water from the western river earmarked for Pakistan. The Treaty barred India from interfering "with the water of these rivers except for domestic use and non-consumptive use, limited agriculture use and limited utilization for generation of hydro-electric power." The treaty also barred India from storing any water or constructing any storage works on the western rivers that would result in a reduced flow of water to Pakistan.

The water dispute has been on the agenda of the composite dialogue, but no progress has been made. While talks have yet to yield results, Pakistan is accusing India of attempting to use water as a geostrategic tool, former Pakistani foreign secretary Tanvir Ahmad Khan told ISN Security Watch.

A failed treaty

Neither country is satisfied with the Indus Water Treaty, and both are desperate for more water. Pakistani officials criticize it privately for being biased toward India and experts seek its renegotiation.

Indian scholar and writer PR Chari believes that "[n]egotiating an Indus Water Treaty 2 would be a huge Confidence Building Measure (CBM) as it would engage both countries in a regional economic integration process."

Dr Robert G Wirsing, a member of the faculty of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii and an expert on South Asian affairs, said in a lecture in Islamabad that the Treaty had inherent weaknesses. "The solution to water disputes is heavily tied with the fate of Jammu and Kashmir," he said.

Throughout the checkered history of Pakistan-India relations, the only accord that has withstood wars, near wars and terror attacks is the Indus Water Treaty, Senator Mushahid Hussain, chairman of the Pakistani Senate Foreign Relations Committee, pointed out, emphasizing the Treaty's significance.

"India's intransigence on Chenab is being seen as a threat to Pakistan's lifeline, and if India does not relent, the letter and spirit of the peace process plus the bonhomie with the new government in Islamabad would be undermined," he told ISN Security Watch.

Still, with the ongoing composite dialogue, greater awareness exists between the two sides – both keen to keep relations normal and avoid another war. Certainly, there are more doves in both countries than there were a decade ago, and hopefully, this revived water resource conflict can be resolved without either side drying up.

According to the Indus Water Treaty the waters of the Western rivers belong to Pakistan and the waters of the Eastern Rivers belong to India–at least in theory. By illegally occupying Kashmir with a forged article of accession (which is ostensibly lost now–and was never shown to either Pakistan or the UN), India now controls all the rivers. Water wars are not part of some sci-fi movie–they are happening now.

By using Bait Mehsud and Karzai to distract Pakistani, India is now unleashing water damage, first by inundating Pakistan with too much water, and then by starving the farmer by witholding the water at a critical time.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008 By Khalid Mustafa ISLAMABAD: Punjab, the food basket of entire Pakistan, has sustained a huge monetary loss amounting to almost Rs37 billion in the wake of a blockade of Chenab River by India.

According to a senior official in the Punjab irrigation department, over 10 million acres of land in the province has been affected and the standing paddy crop in the area has suffered a lot, as it was the time of maturity and the province badly needed the last watering, which could not be completed just because of the blatant violations of Indus Waters Treaty 1960 by India and continuing to fill up the dead shortage of Baglihar HPP beyond August 31, 2008.

Under the treaty, India cannot reduce the flow in Chenab River below 55,000 cusecs between 21st June and August 31, 2008, whereas Pakistan had been receiving a discharge of as low as 20,000 cusecs during August-September 2008.

The official further said that the government had projected the rice production at 5.7 million tonnes, but the reduction in flows in Chenab River at this point of time will reduce the production by 15 to 20 per cent. This means that rice production will come down from the expected target of 5.7 million tonnes to 4.7 million tonnes.The News

India was currently spending around $200 billion on the construction of water tunnels to the Indus River, which could turn parts of Pakistan into a barren land

Indus water Treaty

India is going ahead with the controversial Baghliar Dam on River Chenab, while Pakistan government, after raising belated objections, has still not taken the decisive steps that are necessary to have this project stopped. Its pathetic proof was seen at the fourth round of the so-called Composite Dialogue between the two countries held in Islamabad from 19-21 May 2008. According to the officials, “The contentious issue of the Baghliar Dam could not find place in the agenda of the foreign ministers’ talks despite Pakistan’s insistence.” The Water Bomb by Majid Nizami

• Indian Aqua bomb-Pakistan’s future water wars in Kashmir
• Indus Water Treaty, Kalabagh, Kashmir, & Gurdaspur
•  The Kalabagh Dam dropped without discussion in parliament
• Water wars: India attacks Pakistan with Water again-flash floods 57 villages

Lt Gen (r) Hameed Gul has said that India has so far built 62 dams and hydro-electric units on Pakistani rivers to deprive Pakistan of water and render into a desert. He said Pakistan was being deprived of water under an international conspiracy to conquer it. At this stage, some insane people were opposing construction of Kalabagh Dam in Pakistan, he added. He said that Shaukat Aziz’s influx in Pakistan was also part of the conspiracy as he formulated such policies, which put the country into crisis. He said that Shaukat Aziz created food shortage. He said the mujahideeen damaged Baglihar Dam and it could not be reconstructed.Hameed Gul, however, warned that the mujahideen would damage all dams. Sindh Water Council Chairman Hafiz Zahoor-ul-Hassan Dahr said that when the dispute on water would not be resolved, there would be conflict between the two countries. He said, “India is not building dams under the Indus Water Treaty but on the Pakistani rivers.” He said that the food shortage would be forty per cent next year that would increase starvation in the country. He warned, “Pakistan can become Somalia and Ethopia,” he added.

Crisis deepens as India blocks Chenab flow By Khaleeq Kiani

ISLAMABAD, Sept 14: India has closed Chenab water flow and as a result the shortage in Pakistan has become more severe.

Sources told Dawn on Sunday that the water blockade by India could adversely affect the Kharif crops, particularly cotton and sugarcane which were in maturity stage and required final watering, and the sowing of Rabi crops early next month.

They said that the Pakistan Indus Water Commission had taken up the matter with the federal government and convened a meeting on Tuesday to take stock of the situation and try to reach a diplomatic solution with New Delhi.

If the Chenab closure prolongs, the sowing of Rabi crops, particularly wheat, would be hit severely. The government had to import more than two million tons of wheat this year despite a record production of more than 23 million tons.

The water shortage could force Pakistan to import more wheat next year, adding to the foreign exchange pressure and worsening its balance of payments crisis. The authorities are already estimating more than 35 per cent shortage of irrigation water during the next Rabi season following a decline in the melting of snow in Northern Areas, higher withdrawals by provinces during Kharif and increased hydropower generation.

The sources said India’s unilateral decision to stop the Chenab flows had put additional pressure on the irrigation system of Pakistan, which used to receive more than 23,000 cusecs a day until last week, but it had now been brought down to almost zero.

Meanwhile, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has convened a meeting of its technical committee on Sept 20 to ascertain the overall water availability for the Rabi season, beginning on Oct 1.

Irsa’s advisory committee will meet on Sept 25 to finalise provincial shares for Kharif on the basis of estimates to be put forth by the technical committee, Irsa chairman Bashir Ahmed Dahar told Dawn.

Responding to a question, he said Irsa had powers and capacity to resolve the issues of water sharing and discharges in consultation with the provincial governments and it had never sought federal government’s intervention to prevail upon one province or the other to accept its decisions.

Exercising these powers, Irsa has increased releases from the Mangla reservoir for Punjab’s final watering by 10,000 cusecs to about 39,000 cusecs. On the other hand, Punjab continued to draw about 49,000 cusecs from Tarbela against its share of about 40,000 cusecs.

Once higher releases from Mangla reached the system, Punjab’s share from Tarbela would be reduced to 40,000 cusecs, the sources said. Irsa had asked Punjab last week to reduce withdrawal by 8,000 cusecs from Chashma-Jhelum canal, but it continued to draw about 18,000 cusecs till Sunday.

The sources said releases in CJ-Link would be reduced to 10,000 cusecs on Monday or Tuesday to preserve reasonable resources in the Indus System for Rabi crops.

To a question he said that 10 million acres land in areas of Sialkot, Gujranwala, Sheikhupura, Hafizabad, Faisalabad, Okara, Lahore, Pak Patan, Vehari and Bawalnaghar have been affected. Out of 10 million acres of land, 5.6 million acres of land has adversely been affected in the areas of Sialkot, Gujranwala, Jhang, Faisalabad and Sheikhupura.

When contacted, Pakistan Commissioner of Indus Water Syed Jamaat Ali Shah, who was on his way to Lahore after attending the meeting in Islamabad held on Tuesday with Minister for Water & Power, Raja Pervez Ashraf in the chair over the interference of flows of River Chenab at Marala head works in Pakistan, said that Pakistan has the option to move Neutral Expert or Court of Arbitration seeking for penalty against India for violation of the treaty.

“First the issue will be taken up at the level of Permanent Commission of Indus Waters (PCIW) for solution once and for all and incase of failure, Pakistan has the option to move Neutral Expert and Court of Arbitration.”

He said that Neutral Expert under the treaty can be moved for compensation of water loss and Arbitration Court for financial loss in case India refuses to pay the compensation.

In the forthcoming meeting of PCIW, he said that Pakistan would come up with solid proof based on undeniable data about the blatant violation of the treaty committed by India.

To another query, Shah said that India has stored 0.2 million acre feet of water for Baglihar project to make it operational in the current month of September.

He vowed that he is to soon visit the site of the Bagluhar project as he has sought dates for the visit from Indian Commission of Indus Water to this effect. However, he said that the Indian Commission is still unmoved over the demand of Pakistan seeking the data of inflows in Chenab River. “My counterpart has so far shown inability in letting us know about the exact inflows of the Chenab River.”

Meanwhile, a very crucial meeting on the reduction in flows of River Chenab at Marala head works was held in the Ministry of Water & Power under the Chairmanship of Minister for Water & Power, Raja Pervez Ashraf. The meeting was attended by senior officers of Ministry of Water & Power, Foreign Office PCIW, Law & Justice, WAPDA, Irrigation Department, Punjab and the related institutions.

The meeting was apprised that India had committed a blatant violation of the Indus Water Treaty by reducing Chenab flows to Pakistan and continuing to fill up the dead shortage of Baglihar HPP beyond August 31, 2008.

Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Water (PCIW) gave a detailed presentation on the issue and informed that he had already taken up the issue with his Indian counterpart. This was followed by a comprehensive discussion. The members were apprised that the initial filling of dead storage of Baglihar Plant in AJ&K on river Chenab resulted in to a substantial reduction of water at Marala.

This has caused a massive agricultural loss to vast areas of Marala command canals. It has also resulted in early depletion of Mangla dam reserves so as to mitigate some of the adverse affects on certain canals. The overall loss to the national economy (loss of water, damage to agricultural crops, overconsumption of energy for running tube wells, etc) had thus been colossal, which are being assessed by the Government of Punjab.