We all know about 85% of Pakistan`s water originates in the Western Himalayas, in India and Tibet and the rest comes in small distributaries from Afghanistan and Kashmir, So the Kashmir war is not because of love for Kashmiris but to safeguard interest of Pakistani Punjab.
The winding down of the Kashmir conflict and Pakistan's rising internal political problems are probable signs of the military withdrawing from its political office and marching to their barracks. This also raises the expectations of a civilian government starting the long and previously neglected task of rebuilding its civilian infrastructure, industry, and agriculture. Though minor irritations may dog its relations with India, the chances of a likely military conflict for now, seems to be receding.
Within the next seven years, India is expected to double its economic size to US$2 trillion, which will make it a highly respected power in the region. In another twenty years, it might become either the second or the third most powerful nation in the world. However, any emerging rival to India will not sit well with China and will lend Pakistan the vital political, military, and economic support in the absence of the U.S. who would have withdrawn all aid after pulling out from Afghanistan.
Afghans, after the American withdrawal will demand unity with their brethren in the federally administered tribal areas (FATA) of Pakistan. They may start another fight to achieve this unity. The Buloch from Bulochistan will follow this lead and renew their fight for independence. The success of both these movements will depend on the amount of resources Pakistan is able to divert from its eastern frontier with India and apply to these new insurgencies. In short, valuable resources will only go wasted.
As Pakistanis watch India's growth as an economic powerhouse, they will also demand the same from their own government, though this would be possible only if peaceful conditions exist. In such a scenario, the reinstalled civilian government will be in a quandary to either reach a compromise with the insurgents or keep fighting a losing battle, though compromise might be a better option.
Pakistan is a progressive agrarian society and has an excellent landmass and river irrigation system. Thirty feet of topsoil in all of Pakistani Punjab with plenty of water to irrigate, makes it a highly productive area. Agriculture and agro based industries have all the makings of a prosperous nation. Water is the key to this progress. Unfortunately, this water flows from India into Pakistan. Three rivers including the Indus provide about 140 million acre-feet of water to Pakistan where two-thirds of it is consumed internally for agriculture and domestic use and the remaining 40 million acre-feet flows into the sea from the Indus delta.
The Chenab River that flows through the heart of this fertile Pakistani Punjab area is the key to the prosperity of the region. Here, a hundred years ago, the world's largest irrigation system was built. Retired Indian civil servants from the days of the British rule settled there and created much of the food surplus in the area. They also began exporting grain to the rest of the Indian sub-continent during the early twentieth century.
The Indus Water Treaty of 1961, between India & Pakistan carefully distributed the river water between the two warring neighbors. While India was allocated the eastern part of the three rivers where it has built big dams to harness the water for irrigation and power generation, Pakistan got the controls over the the western part. Though the past irrigation infrastructures gave Pakistan an advantage, they have been slow in building dams and storage systems and missed the boat to turn it into a region of greater prosperity.
This water usage between India & Pakistan has never been peaceful. Historically, Pakistan has eyed Indian intentions of building dams to generate electricity with much suspicion. Pointless scrutiny has held up two major power projects (Baglihar & Wullar) in Indian controlled Kashmir for decades. Major objections to the Baglihar dam were referred to the World Bank, who had sponsored the Indus Water Treaty. The results disappointed Pakistan when India's right to build the dam to harness waterpower was recognized. This decision also laid to rest any possible objections on the other project - Wullar. The Bank's neutral observer asked India to reduce the height of the dam to give Pakistan some elbowroom to maneuver the diplomatic mess. The point is that these water-sharing issues are not going to fade off easily. The Pakistanis have been thoroughly dissatisfied with the Baglihar decision and any excuse would give them the impetus to start another brawl.
Pakistan's poor water management like slow dam constructions, lack of storage capacity, and water rights wrangling means more water shortages looming on their horizons. These have raised concerns from many quarters including noted Pakistani columnist - Shahid Javed Burki, who has argued that Pakistan needs a well thought out water strategy, which addresses water storage, better utilization strategies, and water accounting for deciding agricultural production patterns. He points that cultivating a pound of tomatoes require 13 litres of water versus 11,000 for a pair of jeans. Hence, the question whether Pakistan should cultivate cotton or switch to another crop is crucial. Burki has a critical point that needs careful examination.
Water is a precious resource to an agrarian society. Misdirected policies can have a strong and passionate response from people wanting to protect it. These actions are sufficient to inflame the whole population. The Kashmir issue never raised passions as high as the water issue would. Acute water shortages will result due to Pakistan's internal erroneous water management policies and blaming India will set the neighbors on a collision course. Though, this is unlikely to happen in the next 15 to 20 years, serious water shortage is likely to develop around the year 2030. As soon as this shortage affects agriculture, a major conflict in the sub-continent will begin.
For India there are few choices as it has to adhere to the Indus Water Treaty whereby no water can be taken out of the Pakistani designated rivers except as permitted by the Treaty. A war scenario unfolding within twenty years from now is not hard to imagine. It will begin with less water in the river Chenab due to less rainfall or snow in the upper reaches of the Himalayas, because of uncertain weather patterns. Fickle minded politicians will paint India the villain and incite the masses to grab water from India's three rivers. This is sufficient to inflame the population. Add to this, the persistent problem of Kashmir and the perceived mistreatment of Muslims in India and one is left with an explosive mix ready to burst. The army that had sat out for two decades now gets its opportunity to wage war and prepares for hostilities.
The outcome of this conflict is unpredictable as much as a nuclear conflagration is possible. Hence, it is important to send the Pakistani army back to its barracks and tone down its military influence. While Pakistan needs speedy help with its water management system, India needs to prevent any oversight in dam building activities in Kashmir.
Pakistan`s Renewed effort for water
Pakistan`s Renewed effort for water
In a surprise move, Pakistan has once gain spawned the water issue on a political fast-track against India.
On January 28, 2009, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari in an article in Washington Post described water as a major issue between Pakistan and India. While congratulating the new US President Barack Obama, Zardari pleaded the US to re-hyphenate Pakistan with India on a number of accounts including the water crisis which he thought was fraught with serious consequences not only for environmental catastrophe, but also for fuelling extremism and terrorism in South Asia. He applauded Obama’s desire to engage Pakistan and India to defuse the tensions in South Asia.
Why bring the water issue now? There could be two main reasons for it. Firstly, Pakistan is disturbed at being clubbed with Afghanistan as a troubled state, especially with Richard Holbrooke’s appointment as a special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. The direction by the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton emphasized on the importance of “an integrated strategy” that treats the problems of Afghanistan and Pakistan as a single whole is a disturbing thing for Islamabad. Clinton intends to give a sharp focus on Pakistan and Afghanistan by mobilizing US allies and friends from around the world to stir up the faltering war on terror.
In the op-ed piece Asif Ali Zardari urged Obama to expand special emissary Richard Holbrooke’s brief to include Kashmir and other disputes between India and Pakistan. He wrote “Much as the Palestinian issue remains the core obstacle to peace in the Middle East, the question of Kashmir must be addressed in some meaningful way to bring stability to this region.”
He reminded the US that the situation in Pakistan, Afghanistan and India is indeed critical, but said that its severity actually presents an opportunity for aggressive and innovative action. He wrote that “the special envoy will work with India and Pakistan not only to bring a just and reasonable resolution to the issues of Kashmir and Jammu but also to address critical economic and environmental concerns.”
Secondly, Pakistan wants to divert the world’s attention away from focus on terrorism in which Islamabad had landed itself up after 26/11 Mumbai attack. The world’s pressure on Pakistan to own the 26/11 responsibility has tarnished Pakistan’s international image as the real epicenter of terrorism.
By raising the water issue, Pakistan wants to convey the point that it is not its professed ideology and fanaticism but water resources that fuel the fires of discontent among its people and in turn breads extremism and terrorism. Pakistan’s own media reports suggest that the water issue vis-à-vis India are being raised by the agencies other than the Pakistan Indus Waters Commission. Pakistan’s position is that India is violating the Indus Waters Treaty’s provisions by reducing the flow in the Chenab river at the Maralla headwork having adverse impact on the loss of cropped areas in Lahore, Kasur, Okara, Sialkot, Hafizabad, Sheikhupura, Faisalabad and Jhang district.
Besides, Pakistan claimed that the flow would cause early depletion of water reserves at Mangla dam. Pakistan threatens to write letters to Muslim countries, the members of the Friends of Pakistan forum and Britain to draw their attention to the issue.
It appears that Pakistan is keen to make water as the next catalyst for conflict with India. This is notwithstanding the fact that India and Pakistan signed the Indus Water Treaty way back in 1960s, which has been adhered to by India without tempering it despite several wars between India and Pakistan. The Treaty is being cited as a unique example of water-sharing mechanism in the world.
Two things have emerged clearly from Pakistan’s renewed attempt to raise the water issue. Firstly, it is clear that Pakistan is unlikely to come to terms with India even if the Kashmir issue is brought to any satisfactory solution. Those who believe that Kashmir is the only dispute between India and Pakistan are highly mistaken. Pakistan has been February 2009 5 propagating throughout that the question of Kashmir is the only key to India – Pakistan relations.
Secondly, it is also now clear that Pakistan has actually been eyeing for Kashmir’s environmental resources rather than seriously thinking about the actual life and destiny of Kashmiri people. Islamabad’s plea to Ambassador Holbrooke was to address critical economic and environmental concerns, but the failure to do so, according to Zardari could ‘fuel the fires of discontent that lead to extremism and terrorism’ comes as a stern warning.
Perhaps, both must also pray to the weather Gods for adequate rains to keep the health of their rivers and its economies intact. Maybe, good behavior might just do the trick
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